The coronavirus crisis has put the traditional forecasting models into question and increased the need for scenarios, says the Yearbook of Foresight Centre. On the basis of studies, the publication maps the development trends relating to the crisis and Estonia’s possible exit strategies from the corona crisis.
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The corona pandemic has accelerated changes in the economic structure, says the Yearbook of the Foresight Centre, published next Monday. Many labour-intensive economic sectors are in trouble and social inequalities have deepened, having taken on new forms.
The boosting platformisation of the economy is an effective tool for the ever-increasing division of the world into the US and Chinese spheres of influence, says the Yearbook of Foresight Centre, which will be published in March. The option for the European Union is to strive to become a regulative superpower in the platform economy with the support of its large internal market.
Governance expert Annika Uudelepp joined the Foresight Council as representative of the President of the Republic. The Foresight Council approves the annual national action plan on foresight and makes proposals concerning the principal trends and topics of foresight to be studied by the Foresight Centre in the Chancellery of the Riigikogu.
In 2021, the Foresight Centre will study the future opportunities of the Estonian tax system, and the issues relating to long-term care, changes in higher education and mobility of the population. Altogether, the Centre will deal with the possible development trends and scenarios in four fields this year.
The cancellation of orders that was brought along with the first wave of the corona pandemic made companies in metal and engineering industries pay greater attention to developing original products, the report “The Impact of the Virus Crisis on the Estonian Economy. Scenarios up to 2030” by the Foresight Centre reveals. The shortage of suitable labour force and the risk-proofing of working processes has also compelled the industry to seek solutions for automating their activities.
In Estonia, the pressure to use foreign staff in long-term care will increase, says the report of the Foresight Centre Future of Long-term Care Development Trends until 2035, which is presented today.
The low-interest rates embolden people to look for riskier investment opportunities, which in turn increases expectations on the risk management of financial institutions to avoid jeopardising the savings of private individuals, says the Foresight Centre report “The Impact of the Virus Crisis on the Estonian Economy. Scenarios up to 2030”. Banks have again started to fund the investments of businesses with more confidence.
The reduction of planned treatment and extension of treatment waiting lists has made more people turn to private medicine, the report “The Impact of the Virus Crisis on the Estonian Economy. Scenarios up to 2030” by the Foresight Centre reveals. The increase in people’s health awareness accompanying the virus crisis and the tax exemption on the costs incurred for the promotion of health, introduced in 2018, have also fostered the growth of private medicine.
The corona crisis discourages green transition in the trade because greater attention to hygiene increases the use of packages, and investments into environmental sustainability have been stopped due to the crisis, says the Foresight Centre report “The Impact of the Virus Crisis on the Estonian Economy. Scenarios up to 2030”. The virus crisis has boosted e-commerce in Estonia, but it has not replaced the turnover of traditional shops.