The goal of the foresight project was to highlight the significance of changes in global forces for Estonia’s development, and the consequent key dilemmas for decision-makers. For this purpose, we involved experts to create alternative scenarios on changes in global forces up to the year 2035, mainly concentrating on developments in the fields of technology and energy.
The Foresight Centre study “Changes in Global Forces and Their Significance for Estonia“ was a means to identify important decision-making points and stimulating discussion. The main options for decision-makers were highlighted, based on global developments.
The developments that affect changes in global forces were identified by analysing written sources directed at both the academia and the policy-shapers. The summary of the literature and the scenarios created by different foresight teams were used to identify the key factors, the main indeterminates, by highlighting the similarities and the differences in scenarios regarding changes in global forces.
The expert discussions were then used as the basis for alternative scenarios until 2035, using the scenario building method (Schwartz 1991; Ramirez and Wilkinson 2016). In cooperation with experts, the lead committee and other parties, the significance of different scenarios for Estonia was determined and the main dilemmas accentuated.
The study was led by the Foresight Centre but was conducted in an international framework created for the purpose, involving top experts from Estonia and abroad.
Key research questions
- What is the significance of the changes in global forces for Estonia in light of different scenarios?
- Which are the main dilemmas that the decision-makers must take into account?