Since the beginning of the full-scale war in Ukraine, the import of goods and services from Russia and Belarus has decreased nearly tenfold, while exports have increased, according to the recent short report by the Foresight Centre.
Ukrainian refugees from the war have integrated in the labour market in Estonia more successfully than they have in those in other countries, but there remains room for improvement in matching the qualifications of those arriving from Ukraine with appropriate jobs concludes a report published today by the Foresight Centre on how Ukrainian refugees have affected employment and the economy.
According to the Foresight Centre report “Long-term Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on Estonia. Population, Integration, Foreign Trade”, which was published today, Estonia must take into account that many war refugees will remain in Estonia for an indefinite time. The Centre drew up scenarios about 10,000, 30,000 and 60,000 war refugees remaining in Estonia.
Completely ending import of Russian and Belarus goods would have the greatest impact on the logistics, metal, and wood industries, where the replacement goods from other countries are more than 25% more expensive, shows the Foresight Centre brief report “Impact of ending import from Russia and Belarus on economic sectors”. Reshaping supply chains would increase costs for businesses and require keeping larger stocks to ground the risks.
Estonian businesses who depend on the goods and raw materials imported from Russia and Belarus should ground their business risks in good time, shows the Foresight Centre brief report “Impact of replacing imports from Russia and Belarus across categories of goods”. Completely ending import from these countries would entail a EUR 860 million additional cost to Estonian businesses in 2021 prices.
An independent think tank at the Riigikogu