Foresight Centre: Two-thirds of those trained as mathematics teachers stay in the profession

Eneli Kindsiko, expert at the Foresight Centre, noted that more than 600 mathematics teachers were trained in Estonia between 2005 and 2023 and 64% of them currently work primarily as teachers. However, this is not enough to replace the teachers reaching retirement age. “The number of next generation mathematics teachers is only about half of what is required for replacement, and unfortunately, we also have to consider the higher-than-average quitting rate of young mathematics teachers, which is affected by alternative better paid job opportunities as well as teachers’ heavy workloads,” said Kindsiko.

According to the Foresight Centre’s short report, there were 3,289 mathematics teachers in Estonia in the 2023/24 school year. The most critical need for a new generation of teachers is in grades 7-12, where every third teacher is over 60 years old. By county, the need for replacement mathematics teachers is the greatest in Lääne County and Rapla County, where 46% and 42% of mathematics teachers respectively are 60 or older.

The Foresight Centre’s analysis reveals that young mathematics teachers quitting teaching at schools is another concern. For example, in the 2021/2022 academic year, 244 mathematics teachers quit their job and 46% of them were under 40 years old.

The best paid alternative job opportunities for mathematics teachers are in Tartu and Tallinn. For example, in Tartu County, a professionally trained mathematics teacher earns 419 euros, or 16%, less than mathematics alumni who do not work as teachers. In Harju County, the difference is 374 (13%) and in the rest of Estonia, 255 euros (10%).

Kindsiko said that a higher salary alone is not enough to alleviate the shortage of mathematics teachers, as their heavy workload is a major challenge. This is also a concern in other countries, where various programmes have been tested to attract and retain teachers in schools.

“For example, in England and the USA, higher salaries are paid to mathematics and physics teachers at the beginning of their careers, as well as to those who teach in schools where children come from poor socioeconomic backgrounds and where a large number of children have special educational needs,” said Kindsiko. “Teaching mathematics in smaller groups and sharing good, qualified teachers between schools are also methods that have proven to be beneficial. However, the quickest solution for small schools could be providing further training to teachers of other subjects who have small workloads, including a micro-degree option, where teachers of other subjects could acquire the additional competences of a mathematics teacher.”

The short report (in Estonian) ‘The need for the next generation of mathematics teachers and their alternative job opportunities’ is part of the Foresight Centre’s research stream ‘The Future for the Next Generation of Teachers’, which aims to develop scenarios for the need and next generation of teachers up to 2040 based on global and national trends.