The Foresight Centre studies the impact of the virus crisis on the future of Estonian economy

Head of the Foresight Centre Tea Danilov explained that the study project would first of all focus on assessing the future prospects of different economic sectors. “The post-corona crisis world will be full of unknown factors, and different development paths will be possible in the internationalisation of economy, in the changing of consumer preferences as well as in the speed of green transition in connection with state support measures. Among other things, we will consider how the structure of Estonian economy and its competitive position in regard to other countries may change. The possible progression of broader social and societal processes will be viewed as the background,” Danilov said.

The Foresight Centre analyses possible future developments with the help of scenarios that set out both the opportunities and the threats the developments connected with the corona crisis may bring about for Estonia.

Uku Varblane, expert of the Foresight Centre and head of this research, added that the study would describe the main mechanisms through which the coronavirus and the measures implemented to prevent its spread influenced economy and the society as a whole. “For us, it is important to point out the emerging trends and/or the trends that will amplify in the future, and the development scenarios proceeding from them for Estonia, so that we could discuss the risks and opportunities for different economic sectors based on the scenarios,” Varblane said.

For example, the future success of several economic sectors will depend on whether the movement of goods and people across the state borders will be restored to the previous level or not. “Recovery is related not only to the lifting of restrictions, but also to how much of business and communication has moved to the digital channels, and how countries and companies try to prepare for future crises. The business opportunities of digital economy are also influenced by the globally increasing entrance barriers and regulations,” expert of the Foresight Centre Uku Varblane explained.

In the study dealing with the impact of COVID-19, the Foresight Centre also describes the importance of the prepared scenarios to different economic sectors and their development perspectives.

 The final report of the Foresight Centre’s special project on the impact of COVID-19 will be completed by October this year. The materials of the study are available here (in Estonian): https://arenguseire.ee/uurimissuunad/covid-19-moju-arengusuundumustele/