Foresight Centre to study the future of older people in the labour market

Eneli Kindsiko, an expert at the Foresight Centre, noted that Estonia’s population is ageing rapidly. According to the forecast by Statistics Estonia, by 2050, people aged over 65 will make up 27% of the Estonian population, compared to 20% currently. “Lifelong learning is key in an ageing society, and the competitiveness of countries will increasingly depend on how effectively people in the 50+ age group, the so-called ‘silver workers’, can be engaged in the labour market,” said Kindsiko. She added that according to OECD projections, by 2060, the working-age population will shrink by more than 30% in Estonia.

The latest Estonian Human Development Report reveals that in Estonia, the lifelong learning participation rate is higher than the European Union average. However, those participating in learning are predominantly people whose educational capital is already above average. For example, the most active participants in lifelong learning are highly educated women aged 25–49. Adults with lower levels of education, particularly men with only basic education, as well as people with reduced work ability, stand out for their very low participation rates.

According to Kindsiko, researchers are also concerned that the number of healthy life years is relatively low in Estonia compared to many other countries. “In Estonia, people spend the last 20 years of their lives with health-related limitations,” she said. “In other words, healthy life years tend to end before the official retirement age.”

The OECD stresses that countries and employers must jointly fight against age discrimination, create elderly-friendly workplaces, and promote lifelong learning as well as mobility between different jobs and roles. The OECD finds that people must have the opportunity to update their skills throughout their working lives, and that employers must offer flexible work arrangements and working conditions suitable for employees of various ages. This is especially important in sectors already facing a severe shortage of top-level specialists, such as healthcare, education and engineering.

The Foresight Centre’s research stream “Trends and the Future of Lifelong Learning” aims to identify the main uncertainties and key factors shaping the future of lifelong learning in Estonia up to 2050. As part of the research stream, the centre analyses how population ageing and the decreasing working-age population affect the necessity for lifelong learning. It also creates scenarios regarding the potential development of employment for older people and their lifelong learning opportunities. The report, which will be completed by next spring, will also address ways to keep the skills of workers over the age of 50 up to date and ensure flexible opportunities for further training and retraining throughout people’s lives.