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The Ukrainian war refugees potentially settling in Estonia will somewhat delay the decrease of the population in Estonia, but the immigration will have a shorter-term impact compared to the earlier projection, is revealed by the report “Ukrainian War Refugees in Estonia – Population and Integration” by the Foresight Centre, published today.

According to the Foresight Centre report “Long-term Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on Estonia. Population, Integration, Foreign Trade”, which was published today, Estonia must take into account that many war refugees will remain in Estonia for an indefinite time. The Centre drew up scenarios about 10,000, 30,000 and 60,000 war refugees remaining in Estonia.

According to the Foresight Centre brief report “Long-Term Prospects of Integration of War Refugees in Estonia”, the experts of integration think that the war refugees who have arrived in Estonia are more likely to integrate with the Estonian community than with another language community. Integration would be supported above all by a quick entry into the labour market, but experts are more sceptical about the capacity of the Estonian social and education system to provide sufficient support for integration.