Since the beginning of the full-scale war in Ukraine, the import of goods and services from Russia and Belarus has decreased nearly tenfold, while exports have increased, according to the recent short report by the Foresight Centre.
Ukrainian refugees from the war have integrated in the labour market in Estonia more successfully than they have in those in other countries, but there remains room for improvement in matching the qualifications of those arriving from Ukraine with appropriate jobs concludes a report published today by the Foresight Centre on how Ukrainian refugees have affected employment and the economy.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, 32,000 people have registered their residence in Estonia and war refugees make up around 2.2% of the Estonian population. According to the Foresight Centre brief report “The Burden of Municipalities in Hosting Ukrainian War Refugees”, the share of refugees in the population and the burden relating to hosting them varies considerably from one municipality to another.
The Ukrainian war refugees potentially settling in Estonia will somewhat delay the decrease of the population in Estonia, but the immigration will have a shorter-term impact compared to the earlier projection, is revealed by the report “Ukrainian War Refugees in Estonia – Population and Integration” by the Foresight Centre, published today.
According to the Foresight Centre report “Long-term Impact of the Russo-Ukrainian War on Estonia. Population, Integration, Foreign Trade”, which was published today, Estonia must take into account that many war refugees will remain in Estonia for an indefinite time. The Centre drew up scenarios about 10,000, 30,000 and 60,000 war refugees remaining in Estonia.
According to the Foresight Centre brief report “Long-Term Prospects of Integration of War Refugees in Estonia”, the experts of integration think that the war refugees who have arrived in Estonia are more likely to integrate with the Estonian community than with another language community. Integration would be supported above all by a quick entry into the labour market, but experts are more sceptical about the capacity of the Estonian social and education system to provide sufficient support for integration.
Completely ending import of Russian and Belarus goods would have the greatest impact on the logistics, metal, and wood industries, where the replacement goods from other countries are more than 25% more expensive, shows the Foresight Centre brief report “Impact of ending import from Russia and Belarus on economic sectors”. Reshaping supply chains would increase costs for businesses and require keeping larger stocks to ground the risks.
Estonian businesses who depend on the goods and raw materials imported from Russia and Belarus should ground their business risks in good time, shows the Foresight Centre brief report “Impact of replacing imports from Russia and Belarus across categories of goods”. Completely ending import from these countries would entail a EUR 860 million additional cost to Estonian businesses in 2021 prices.
An independent think tank at the Riigikogu 
Märt Masso, PhD
Expert of the Foresight Centre